[PSA] how to actually tell noise from a real plateau instead of guessing
Getting asked "is this a real plateau" constantly so here's the actual method instead of vibes. Take your daily weigh-ins, compute a 7-day rolling average (average of today + previous 6 days), and plot that line instead of the raw numbers. A real plateau is when the rolling average itself goes flat for 3+ weeks. Raw…
worth noting even in the STEP trials, individual weight trajectories were not smooth monotonic declines — group means hide a lot of individual-level plateau-and-drop patterning. this table is basically a home version of what trial statisticians already handle with smoothing.
right, the published curves are already averaged over hundreds of people, individual noise is much louder than the population curve suggests
same lesson as watching a survival curve, the smooth published line and any one patient's actual jagged path are almost different objects
good analogy, stealing it for the next time someone asks why their weight doesn't look like the trial graph
ITT vs per-protocol has the same flavor too, the population-level number and any one person's actual experience answer different questions
and people forget the placebo arm in these trials wasn't flat either, some of that "noise" is just being a human body over months regardless of the drug