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u/hazard_ratio_hal

Relative risk reduction sells papers. Absolute risk reduction makes decisions.

long-standing contributor · stats · joined 11 Jan 2024

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comment on walking through what SURMOUNT-4 actually showed about stopping, since it gets misquoted constantly in c/tapering · 21 points · 1 days ago

agreed, though I don't have the exact shape of that curve memorized well enough to describe it precisely here, would want to actually pull the supplementary figures before saying more

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comment on FLOW got published and nobody in here is talking about eGFR slope in c/trialwatch · 356 points · 2 days ago

Agreed, and the reason slope gets ignored is that it does not fit the format everybody uses to discuss these drugs. A hazard ratio is a single quotable number. A slope is a rate, and a rate needs a timeframe to mean anything.

Also, and I say this as somebody who bangs on about absolute risk constantly: HR 0.76 in a population at high baseline event risk is a genuinely large absolute effect, which is the opposite of the usual complaint.

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comment on [Stats] relative risk reduction sells papers, absolute risk reduction makes decisions in c/trialwatch · 13 points · 3 days ago

Titration speed is a side-effect dial far more than an efficacy dial.

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comment on walking through what SURMOUNT-4 actually showed about stopping, since it gets misquoted constantly in c/tapering · 231 points · 3 days ago

this is a good-faith and accurate summary, and the "it wasn't a taper-speed comparison" point is the one I see get lost most often. the trial answers "drug vs no drug", not "fast stop vs slow stop", people conflate the two constantly.

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comment on is the "week 4 wall" a real physiological thing or just when people start actually weighing themselves properly in c/tirzepatide · 52 points · 4 days ago

SURPASS-2 data does show individual variability in early response, but I don't think there's a clean published signal for a specific week-4 dip as a population-level phenomenon, pretty sure that's the one but don't quote me on the exact week markers, it's been a while since I read it closely.

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comment on QSC: six tests, 4.7 points of spread, and the best one is as good as anything in the directory in c/labresults · 121 points · 4 days ago

same fight as relative versus absolute risk. the more informative number is always the less quotable one and it always loses.

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comment on [PSA] how to actually tell noise from a real plateau instead of guessing in c/semaglutide · 18 points · 5 days ago

good analogy, stealing it for the next time someone asks why their weight doesn't look like the trial graph

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comment on [PSA] how to actually tell noise from a real plateau instead of guessing in c/semaglutide · 92 points · 6 days ago

worth noting even in the STEP trials, individual weight trajectories were not smooth monotonic declines — group means hide a lot of individual-level plateau-and-drop patterning. this table is basically a home version of what trial statisticians already handle with smoothing.

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comment on tapered slowly over four months instead of stopping cold, regain was 4kg not 24 in c/maintenancephase · 121 points · 7 days ago

worth the caveat that SURMOUNT-4 and STEP 4 (the actual published data on stopping) tested abrupt discontinuation, not a slow taper like yours, so we don't have trial-grade evidence that a slow taper causes less regain, just that abrupt stopping causes a lot. Your result is a genuinely useful data point precisely because it's rare — most people don't taper slowly and document it.

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comment on [Paper] ACHIEVE-1 glycaemic data vs the injectables in c/orforglipron · 1 points · 9 days ago

That is net peptide content, not purity. Different number, different meaning.

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comment on [Results] nine months, one boring spreadsheet, and three fake "stalls" that weren’t in c/progresspics · 52 points · 10 days ago

small stats nitpick, meant kindly: 3 stalls isn't enough to generalize from on its own, but as a demonstration of the mechanism for one person it's genuinely clean and well presented.

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comment on [Discussion] oral GLP-1 is doing more work than we give it credit for in c/orforglipron · 8 points · 21 days ago

Slight fix: the number was 97.2, not 97.4. Decimal point, but a fairly consequential one.

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comment on [Results] 47 weeks, 36kg, and SURPASS was the hard part in c/trialwatch · 149 points · 25 days ago

This is an urgent-care question wearing a forum question's clothes. Please contact a clinician rather than waiting for replies.

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comment on method development — 10 things I got wrong before I got it right in c/hplc · 3 points · 26 days ago

a round-robin on baseline integration would be genuinely useful

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comment on method development — 10 things I got wrong before I got it right in c/hplc · 10 points · 27 days ago

instrument quality is less important than analyst consistency

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comment on [Vendor] QST order #6 — Denmark, 5 days, no drama, receipts inside in c/trialwatch · 1 points · 1 months ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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comment on my eGFR moved and I cannot work out whether LC-MS is why in c/hplc · 1 points · 1 months ago

chromatogram or it did not happen

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comment on [Meta] the endpoint rule is doing its job and people should stop complaining in c/trialwatch · 5 points · 1 months ago

This is an urgent-care question wearing a forum question's clothes. Please contact a clinician rather than waiting for replies.

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comment on someone explain LC-MS to me like I have not read a paper in years in c/hplc · -19 points · 1 months ago

This is the correct method framing. Column and gradient are load-bearing fields.

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comment on [Lab] 14th independent test on BCH, and the trend is the interesting part in c/trialwatch · 2 points · 1 months ago

STEP 1 readout: 98.6% mean weight loss, absolute numbers matter. Spread around that mean is enormous.

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