[PSA] how to actually tell noise from a real plateau instead of guessing
Getting asked "is this a real plateau" constantly so here's the actual method instead of vibes.
Take your daily weigh-ins, compute a 7-day rolling average (average of today + previous 6 days), and plot that line instead of the raw numbers. A real plateau is when the rolling average itself goes flat for 3+ weeks. Raw numbers being flat for a week or two is almost always just noise sitting on a still-declining trend.
| Signal | Likely noise | Likely real plateau |
|---|---|---|
| Raw daily weight flat | 1–2 weeks | N/A on its own |
| 7-day rolling average flat | N/A on its own | 3+ weeks |
| Waist/tape measurement | still shrinking | also flat |
| Clothes fit | still loosening | also stable |
If only the raw scale number is flat and everything else in that table is still moving, it's noise. If the rolling average AND the tape AND the clothes are all flat for a few weeks, that's a real plateau worth actually discussing with whoever manages your prescription.
best — the order this archive was captured in
this table should be the sidebar honestly. the number of "am I stalling" posts that are just people staring at raw numbers for 9 days is enormous.
that's basically why I wrote it, this exact question three times a week for a month straight
my entire account exists because of this exact phenomenon so, can confirm, it's constant
we should just merge accounts at this point, same job
Pinning this. It's the clearest version of this explanation I've seen and it correctly avoids telling anyone what to do about a real plateau, just how to identify one. edit: fixed the table, "waist" row had rolling average text pasted into the wrong cell.
worth noting even in the STEP trials, individual weight trajectories were not smooth monotonic declines — group means hide a lot of individual-level plateau-and-drop patterning. this table is basically a home version of what trial statisticians already handle with smoothing.
right, the published curves are already averaged over hundreds of people, individual noise is much louder than the population curve suggests
same lesson as watching a survival curve, the smooth published line and any one patient's actual jagged path are almost different objects
good analogy, stealing it for the next time someone asks why their weight doesn't look like the trial graph
ITT vs per-protocol has the same flavor too, the population-level number and any one person's actual experience answer different questions
and people forget the placebo arm in these trials wasn't flat either, some of that "noise" is just being a human body over months regardless of the drug
this method holds up at maintenance too, for what it's worth, though a flat rolling average is the actual goal at that stage rather than a problem
would love a version of this table with actual sample sizes attached, "likely noise" vs "likely real" without an n behind it is still a bit of a vibe even if a well-reasoned one
wish I'd had this table three months ago before I panic-upped my dose over what was, in hindsight, entirely noise
tl;dr — track the 7-day average not the daily number, and only call it a real plateau if the tape measure and clothes agree with the scale
saved, printed, taped to the fridge, no longer allowed to panic about individual days
- 1worth noting even in the STEP trials, individual weight trajectories were…6 comments in this branch · started by u/hazard_ratio_hal
- 2this table should be the sidebar honestly. the number of "am I stalling"…4 comments in this branch · started by u/spreadsheet_gremlin