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c/trialwatch·posted 9 months ago by u/blunt_coldbox_notes

FLOW vs TRIUMPH — genuinely asking which matters more

Readout Clean Column ×6

Trying to settle this properly because the thread from last year went in circles.

The claim: FLOW matters. The counter-claim: it is measurement error. Both sides have been asserting it confidently for about 8 months without either producing anything.

What would actually settle it is 3 people measuring the same thing the same way. I have started; my numbers are below. They lean one way but not strongly enough for me to declare victory.

If you have data, post the data. If you have an opinion, flair it as an opinion.

1,024 up / 308 down77% upvoted40 commentsid sxlhs22 Oct 2025

40 comments

19 in this archive, depth 4

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/week_one_wanda80 points·9 months ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/naomi_ekstrom21 points·9 months ago

This is the "correlation is mechanism" thing again. You changed three variables at once.

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u/pancreatitis_scare51 points·9 months ago

off-label use data is different from approved-indication data

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u/blunt_coldbox_notesOP31 points·9 months ago

Phase 2 TRIUMPH looked amazing. Phase 3 trials are harder. Do not anchor on phase 2 readouts.

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u/blunt_coldbox_notesOP30 points·9 months ago

That is net peptide content, not purity. Different number, different meaning.

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u/trialwatch_theotrial nerd19 points·9 months ago

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

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[deleted]12 points·9 months ago

[deleted]

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u/ahmed_iyer0 points·9 months ago
saved. thank you.
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u/cesar_ivaturi1 point·9 months ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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u/valeria_karlsen-21 points·9 months ago

No. This is the kind of confident post that gets copied into a screenshot and repeated for years. Where is the evidence.

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u/camila_vasquez1 point·9 months ago

Not to be pedantic but SURPASS and TRIUMPH are being used interchangeably and they are not interchangeable in real life.

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u/draw_up_dizzy1 point·9 months ago

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

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u/gastric_emptying_g21 points·9 months ago

Mechanistically the bit that matters is SELECT. It explains most of the early profile and a decent chunk of the outcome.

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u/eu_apotheke_a16 points·9 months ago

This is correct. Discontinuation arms show the regain reality.

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u/nora_oyelaran5 points·9 months ago·edited

Strongly agree. Phase 2 is investigational, not conclusive.

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u/receptor_bias_rick2 points·9 months ago

STEP, SURMOUNT, SURPASS, SELECT, FLOW, TRIUMPH — read the appendix

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u/nightowl_injector12 points·9 months ago

Phase 2 TRIUMPH looked amazing. Phase 3 trials are harder. Do not anchor on phase 2 readouts.

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u/karl_fischer_kev4 points·9 months ago·edited

event rates are more informative than hazard ratios alone

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About c/trialwatch

Clinical trial reading group. New readouts, protocol amendments, endpoint definitions, dropout handling, and the difference between a press release and a publication. Absolute risk reduction and number-needed-to-treat are house dialect here.

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