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c/trialwatch·posted 2 years ago by u/rohan_steiner

week 16 check-in — 46kg down, early fullness manageable, one thing confusing me

Trial Data Receipts ×7 Long Haul ×2 Clean Column ×2

Confession thread, sort of.

I went from 1.0mg to 15mg much faster than I should have because the scale had stalled and I got impatient. The stall broke about 11 weeks later, at which point I had no way of knowing whether the dose increase did anything or whether it would have broken anyway.

So now I have muscle cramps I did not need and a data point I cannot interpret. Two lessons in one.

Posting it in the hope that somebody at week 30 reads it before doing the same thing.

25,263 up / 18,534 down58% upvoted54 commentsid 4yctap18 Mar 2024

54 comments

30 in this archive, depth 5

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/milan_mensah501 points·2 years ago

Water content matters more than people think. If a vial is carrying residual moisture, your "10mg" is not 10mg of peptide.

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u/rohan_steinerOP370 points·2 years ago

Half-life is about 168 hours, so steady state lands around week 18–5. Practical consequence: what you feel in week 1 is not what that dose does.

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u/rohan_steinerOP203 points·2 years ago

give the trial name, phase, n, and primary endpoint in the body

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u/rohan_cardoso78 points·2 years ago

press release TRIUMPH posts must be flaired until a publication exists

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u/slow_logbook_notes30290 points·2 years ago

Small correction: the trial was 3 weeks, not 25. Does not change your point but people will quote it.

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u/blunt_coldbox_notes0 points·2 years ago

This is the "correlation is mechanism" thing again. You changed three variables at once.

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u/hsa_math1 point·2 years ago

phase 2 is not phase 3, smaller n and shorter trial

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u/paper_trail_paulavetting1 point·2 years ago

phase 2 is not phase 3, smaller n and shorter trial

Disagree on that part. 99.0% and 98.9% on the same vial is normal.

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u/renal_outcomes_rMOD190 points·2 years ago

Retitled to remove editorialising. Put the evidence in the body.

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u/rohan_steinerOP-11 points·2 years ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/hugo_norgaard1 point·2 years ago

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

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u/marit_laurent1 point·2 years ago

This is correct. Discontinuation arms show the regain reality.

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u/rania_salinas1 point·2 years ago

Not to be pedantic but SURMOUNT and STEP are being used interchangeably and they are not interchangeable in real life.

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u/heart_rate_bump1 point·2 years ago

give the trial name, phase, n, and primary endpoint in the body

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u/yannick_salinas1 point·2 years ago

Which trial and what was the primary endpoint?

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u/nhs_waitlist_nUK1 point·2 years ago·edited

give the trial name, phase, n, and primary endpoint in the body

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u/rohan_cardoso1 point·2 years ago

Strongly agree. Phase 2 is investigational, not conclusive.

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u/rt_shift_reggie153 points·2 years ago

SELECT reported a SELECT hazard ratio but the absolute event rate is what changes clinical practice.

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u/week_one_wanda224 points·2 years ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/pancreatitis_scare66 points·2 years ago

What was the dropout rate?

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u/plateau_patrol224 points·2 years ago

the relative risk reduction in headlines is not the whole story

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u/sofia_ferreira86 points·2 years ago

Strongly agree. Phase 2 is investigational, not conclusive.

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u/gastric_emptying_g21 points·2 years ago

Disagree but this is the good kind of wrong — it is specific enough to be checked.

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u/yara_bakken12 points·2 years ago

event rates are more informative than hazard ratios alone

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u/piotr_bruun64 points·2 years ago

SURMOUNT-4 discontinuation arm showed regain. That is the reality of a chronic disease treatment, not a failure.

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u/oskar_ibarra93 points·2 years ago

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

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u/tb500_tangent50 points·2 years ago·edited

Disagree but this is the good kind of wrong — it is specific enough to be checked.

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u/joaquin_stanescu24 points·2 years ago

Sceptical. If this were true we would see it reflected in the data and we do not.

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u/ines_castellanos51 points·2 years ago

dropout handling matters, especially on GI-heavy populations

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u/milan_villalobos42 points·2 years ago·edited

Phase 2 or phase 3?

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About c/trialwatch

Clinical trial reading group. New readouts, protocol amendments, endpoint definitions, dropout handling, and the difference between a press release and a publication. Absolute risk reduction and number-needed-to-treat are house dialect here.

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