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c/trialwatch·posted 2 years ago by u/hsa_math

genuine question about TRIUMPH that I am slightly embarrassed to ask

Readout Long Haul ×9 Cold Box ×2 Slow Clap ×2

Posting this because I searched for it and got nothing useful.

Setup: 0.5mg, week 83, injection-site soreness present but not ruining anything. I changed exactly one variable — SURMOUNT — and tracked it for 19 weeks.

Result: a difference, but a small one, and well inside what I would call noise if someone else posted it. So I am putting it here rather than presenting it as a finding. If two or three other people have done the same thing we might actually learn something.

Not medical advice, obviously. This is one person with a spreadsheet.

3,638 up / 588 down86% upvoted45 commentsid 5sbmdm17 Jun 2024

45 comments

18 in this archive, depth 5

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/rania_salinas419 points·2 years ago

phase 2 is not phase 3, smaller n and shorter trial

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u/heart_rate_bump338 points·2 years ago

phase 2 is not phase 3, smaller n and shorter trial

Disagree on that part. 97.4% and 98.7% on the same vial is normal.

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u/hsa_mathOP172 points·2 years ago

Phase 2 TRIUMPH looked amazing. Phase 3 trials are harder. Do not anchor on phase 2 readouts.

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u/rina_bergstrom131 points·2 years ago

Edit to your parent would help — the concentration you quoted assumes one scenario and you have written another above it.

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u/paper_trail_paulavetting35 points·2 years ago

the 3 week readout is different from the 10 week readout

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u/adaeze_cabrera0 points·2 years ago

off-label use data is different from approved-indication data

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u/nils_tulloch-33 points·2 years ago

press release SURMOUNT posts must be flaired until a publication exists

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u/kaia_cabrera253 points·2 years ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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u/yara_bakken312 points·2 years ago

Is that absolute or relative risk reduction?

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u/week_four_wall79 points·2 years ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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u/karl_fischer_kev152 points·2 years ago

STEP 1 readout: 99.3% mean weight loss, absolute numbers matter. Spread around that mean is enormous.

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u/hamza_zielinski37 points·2 years ago

SURMOUNT-4 discontinuation arm showed regain. That is the reality of a chronic disease treatment, not a failure.

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u/sten_palacios133 points·2 years ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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u/eu_apotheke_a57 points·2 years ago

event rates are more informative than hazard ratios alone

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u/ines_castellanos16 points·2 years ago

event rates are more informative than hazard ratios alone

Counter-anecdote: opposite result, same dose. Which mostly tells us the variance is huge.

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u/trialwatch_theoMOD102 points·2 years ago

Removed a chain here. The rule is one line long and it is not negotiable.

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u/nils_tulloch71 points·2 years ago

Mechanistically the bit that matters is SURPASS. It explains most of the early profile and a decent chunk of the outcome.

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u/marit_laurent50 points·2 years ago

What was the dropout rate?

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