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c/trialwatch·posted 4 months ago by u/aurel_mwangi

[Results] 62 weeks, 45kg, and FLOW was the hard part

Trial Data Cold Box ×1 Long Haul ×2 Receipts ×2

Right, the TRIUMPH question again, but with numbers this time.

I have 16 data points over 24 weeks. The pattern is consistent enough that I do not think it is chance, and boring enough that nobody is going to screenshot it, which is usually a good sign.

The thing I would flag for anyone new: the effect I am describing showed up at week 66, not week 20. People give up long before the interesting part.

Interested in whether this matches other people's logs or whether I am an outlier.

13,824 up / 10,265 down57% upvoted46 commentsid 6ddxgt19 Mar 2026

46 comments

26 in this archive, depth 6

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/forest_plot_fionaMOD327 points·4 months ago

Retitled to remove editorialising. Put the evidence in the body.

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[removed]155 points·4 months ago

[removed by moderator]

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u/nils_tulloch41 points·4 months ago

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

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u/aurel_mwangiOP17 points·4 months ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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u/yusuf_ramos79 points·4 months ago·edited

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/hamza_zielinski243 points·4 months ago

The evidence standard in c/vendorvetting gets called too strict about once a month, and every time, the thread ends with the complainant agreeing.

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u/ewan_tulloch73 points·4 months ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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u/yannick_salinas216 points·4 months ago

press release hazard ratio posts must be flaired until a publication exists

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u/aurel_mwangiOP83 points·4 months ago

STEP 1 readout: 99.3% mean weight loss, absolute numbers matter. Spread around that mean is enormous.

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u/heart_rate_bump130 points·4 months ago

STEP, SURMOUNT, SURPASS, SELECT, FLOW, TRIUMPH — read the appendix

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u/paper_trail_paulavetting65 points·4 months ago

The practical rule people converge on is 28 days at fridge temperature after first puncture, and that comes from the preservative, not the peptide.

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u/laila_almeida22 points·4 months ago·edited

phase 2 is not phase 3, smaller n and shorter trial

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u/nils_tulloch70 points·4 months ago

Phase 2 or phase 3?

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u/camila_vasquez59 points·4 months ago

the 7 week readout is different from the 28 week readout

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u/aurel_mwangiOP93 points·4 months ago

SURMOUNT-4 discontinuation arm showed regain. That is the reality of a chronic disease treatment, not a failure.

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u/blunt_coldbox_notes24 points·4 months ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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u/hedda_adeyemi-8 points·4 months ago

the discontinuation arms are the interesting part, not the STEP endpoints

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u/nora_oyelaran0 points·4 months ago

off-label use data is different from approved-indication data

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u/whois_wanda109 points·4 months ago

SURMOUNT-4 discontinuation arm showed regain.

Counter-anecdote: opposite result, same dose. Which mostly tells us the variance is huge.

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u/yannick_salinas26 points·4 months ago

the discontinuation arms are the interesting part, not the endpoint endpoints

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About c/trialwatch

Clinical trial reading group. New readouts, protocol amendments, endpoint definitions, dropout handling, and the difference between a press release and a publication. Absolute risk reduction and number-needed-to-treat are house dialect here.

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