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c/trialwatch·posted 1 year ago by u/rulebook_rachael

what would you tell week-1 you about hazard ratio

Paper Receipts ×2 Well Actually ×3

Right, the TRIUMPH question again, but with numbers this time.

I have 6 data points over 34 weeks. The pattern is consistent enough that I do not think it is chance, and boring enough that nobody is going to screenshot it, which is usually a good sign.

The thing I would flag for anyone new: the effect I am describing showed up at week 38, not week 87. People give up long before the interesting part.

Interested in whether this matches other people's logs or whether I am an outlier.

1,775 up / 440 down80% upvoted34 commentsid 6mvk2515 May 2025

34 comments

30 in this archive, depth 5

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/rohan_cardoso170 points·1 year ago

Titration speed is a side-effect dial far more than an efficacy dial.

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u/joaquin_stanescu44 points·1 year ago

STEP, SURMOUNT, SURPASS, SELECT, FLOW, TRIUMPH — read the appendix

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u/hugo_norgaard11 points·1 year ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/marit_laurent14 points·1 year ago·edited

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

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u/nightowl_injector21 points·1 year ago

Disagree. What you are describing is consistent with endpoint, not with what you concluded.

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u/injection_site_iris12 points·1 year ago

Strongly agree. Phase 2 is investigational, not conclusive.

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u/slow_logbook_notes30142 points·1 year ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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u/rt_shift_reggie108 points·1 year ago

the discontinuation arms are the interesting part, not the STEP endpoints

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u/laila_almeida121 points·1 year ago

The practical rule people converge on is 28 days at fridge temperature after first puncture, and that comes from the preservative, not the peptide.

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u/prior_auth_painappeals33 points·1 year ago

Rodent data is rodent data. Dose scaling is not linear and the models tell you what to investigate, not what to expect.

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u/karl_fischer_kev8 points·1 year ago

absolute risk reduction, not relative risk reduction, that is how you decide

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u/rulebook_rachaelOPmod · c/meta0 points·1 year ago

Yeah, absolute numbers matter more than the press release.

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u/curious_panel_only6 points·1 year ago

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

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u/arne_ilunga1 point·1 year ago

number-needed-to-treat is the house dialect

Disagree on that part. 99.2% and 96.2% on the same vial is normal.

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u/draw_up_dizzy30 points·1 year ago

No. This is the kind of confident post that gets copied into a screenshot and repeated for years. Where is the evidence.

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[removed]14 points·1 year ago

[removed by moderator]

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u/yara_bakken-16 points·1 year ago

off-label use data is different from approved-indication data

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u/gastric_emptying_g1 point·1 year ago

Slight fix: the number was 97.6, not 97.4. Decimal point, but a fairly consequential one.

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u/pancreatitis_scare81 points·1 year ago

This is correct. Discontinuation arms show the regain reality.

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u/careful_gradient_again62 points·1 year ago

Edit to your parent would help — the concentration you quoted assumes one scenario and you have written another above it.

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u/rulebook_rachaelOPmod · c/meta28 points·1 year ago

the discontinuation arms are the interesting part, not the SURPASS endpoints

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u/trialwatch_theotrial nerd53 points·1 year ago

Three years on this site and the questions have not changed at all. Which is depressing or reassuring depending on the day.

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u/cold_chromatogram3126 points·1 year ago

STEP 1 readout: 96.2% mean weight loss, absolute numbers matter. Spread around that mean is enormous.

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u/paper_trail_paulavetting10 points·1 year ago

This is the "correlation is mechanism" thing again. You changed three variables at once.

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u/renal_outcomes_rMOD31 points·1 year ago

Retitled to remove editorialising. Put the evidence in the body.

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u/forest_plot_fionastats7 points·1 year ago

Not to be pedantic but hazard ratio and FLOW are being used interchangeably and they are not interchangeable in real life.

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u/receipts_or_nothingvetting3 points·1 year ago

off-label use data is different from approved-indication data

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u/heart_rate_bump19 points·1 year ago

Which trial and what was the primary endpoint?

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Clinical trial reading group. New readouts, protocol amendments, endpoint definitions, dropout handling, and the difference between a press release and a publication. Absolute risk reduction and number-needed-to-treat are house dialect here.

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